With the United States and Iran reaching a fragile ceasefire this week, security researchers and executives are evaluating whether this will lead to a commensurate pause in the digital operations that have escalated alongside the conflict.
The day after the temporary truce was announced, Handala, one of Iran's most high-profile false-flag operations—stated it would participate in a temporary pause in hostilities. However, historical data suggests that truces rarely slow digital activity surrounding kinetic wars. In the absence of physical conflict, unauthorized digital operations tend to increase significantly.
"Historical data and recent intelligence analysis indicate that a military ceasefire rarely equates to a 'digital stand-down,'" notes Austin Warnick, director of Flashpoint’s National Security Intelligence Team. Speaking to Dark Reading, Warnick explained, "Cyber operations often remain steady or even flare up as an asymmetric pressure valve while kinetic hostilities are paused."
Iran's Handala operation and the ceasefire
On April 8, Handala posted a notice to its Telegram channel conceding that "according to the orders from the highest leadership" in Iran, it has postponed its digital activity against the United States.
This development is notable given Handala's visibility. The group previously claimed responsibility for a ransomware-style incident affecting Stryker, one of the most high-profile targets for Iran to date—as well as unauthorized access to FBI director Kash Patel's personal email account.
Handala qualified its statement, noting that "The cyber war did not begin with the military conflict, and it will not end with any military ceasefire." The group indicated that its operations will eventually resume, and in the meantime, it will focus its efforts on Israeli targets.
Sergey Shykevich, threat intelligence group manager at Check Point Research, cautions that it is too early to determine whether Handala, or Iranian advanced persistent threats (APTs) in general, will reduce their activity. "I would not be surprised if, at some point over the next two weeks, they resume cyberattacks as another means of applying pressure against the US," Shykevich states.
Threat actor responses to geopolitics
Politically motivated and false-flag threat groups often attempt to align themselves with ceasefire agreements, potentially seeking legitimacy by participating in a major geopolitical event. Whether their public commitments translate into action varies from conflict to conflict.
Following the October 7 events in Israel and the subsequent operations in Gaza, a temporary ceasefire was reached in late November 2023. At that time, Cyber Toufan, a false-flag operation aligned with Iran's "Resistance Axis," claimed it was pausing operations until kinetic conflict resumed. However, between November and December 2023, the group listed more than 100 affected Israeli organizations on its data leak site, making it unclear if their activity actually slowed.
Ceasefires frequently correlate with increased digital operations, as warring sides use alternative methods to apply pressure and gain leverage for future negotiations. For example, a Hamas-aligned threat actor used a 2021 ceasefire as an opportunity to launch a widespread phishing campaign across the Middle East. Similarly, when Ukraine and Russia agreed to a Black Sea ceasefire, both sides utilized the period to conduct major digital operations, including campaigns directed at the very energy infrastructure the ceasefire was intended to protect.
Markus Mueller, field CISO for Nozomi Networks, provides further historical context: "The major cyberattacks in Ukraine took place during a time when, at least on the Russian side, the war wasn't active. It was right after Russia annexed Crimea. They hadn't really done the big push... That in-between period is when we saw a lot of the larger attacks."
Pivoting targets and maintaining vigilance
Threat actors often treat diplomatic pauses as technicalities. Warnick points out that groups use the time to pivot toward secondary targets or allies to maintain pressure without technically violating military agreements. Low-level digital activity from Iran-aligned groups such as the 313 Team and Conquerors Electronic Army has continued without interruption.
On April 8, the 313 Team claimed responsibility for an incident involving an Australian government authentication portal. Meanwhile, the Conquerors Electronic Army claimed distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) operations against Israeli targets and the US-based freelancer platform Upwork.
Mueller anticipates a shift in unauthorized activity in both scope and scale. "The majority of activity we've seen around this conflict so far is regionalized," he says. "We foresee. Based on what we've seen with other conflicts both within the region, but also with Ukraine—that it's going to grow a little more broad, and we're going to have more activity in North America, more activity in Europe, or any country that was seen as supporting the conflict."
Organizations should use these periods of geopolitical fluctuation to strengthen their defensive posture. Reviewing endpoint security configurations, implementing role-based access control (RBAC), and enforcing phishing-resistant multi-factor authentication (MFA) are critical steps to protect critical infrastructure and enterprise networks from pivoting threat actors.
While most ceasefires do not halt digital operations, the lead-up to the 2015 Iran nuclear deal provides a rare exception. Analysts initially observed the Islamic Republic probing US critical infrastructure for vulnerabilities. However, during the negotiating period, malicious online activity dropped completely. According to The New York Times, security researchers found not a single instance of a malicious phishing email or critical infrastructure probe directed at the US by Iran during that time. Unauthorized activity resumed slowly after negotiations ended, only reaching pre-negotiation levels after Donald Trump withdrew the United States from the agreement.
Note: This analysis incorporates reporting by Nate Nelson, a journalist and scriptwriter for "Darknet Diaries." For more discussions on the evolving security scene, the Dark Reading Confidential podcast episode "Security Bosses Are All in on AI: Here's Why" features Reddit CISO Frederick Lee and Omdia analyst Dave Gruber examining the future of security products.